photovoltaic industry is still very “hot”
With photovoltaic industry, represented by the new energy industry in the local overheating, which is being more and more recognition of industry and outside investors. But on the 19th, held in Wuxi, a new energy industry conference, industry sources for the new energy industry in the overheating phenomena has been sony VGP-BPS2 batterycareful distinction and that in the relevant sub-sectors there is a big space for development. Based on the same judge, in the industry, investors, despite the short-term windfall of new energy era has ended, but the technology has the advantage, from a low level of new competition in the industry, energy companies are still attracted the attention of capital.
PV industry chain imbalance in the overheated
August 26, the State Council executive meeting to study the deployment of excess capacity in some industries suppression and redundant construction, including the polysilicon and photovoltaic power generation-related projects, and low-level duplicated construction of which is no longer approved as a new energy projects. While the new energy sector coverage than a single polysilicon project to be much broader, but the State Council executive meeting of this conclusion has been already widely considered to be outside the country as a whole new energy industry overcapacity conclusions. "The ensuing concern for investors, bank loans will also increase the difficulty." Industry sources have indicated to the editor.
However, people in the industry and the investment community awareness of view, the photovoltaic industry, the existence of a surplus but also from the point of view a more detailed study. GGV Capital managing partner of the China Securities Journal, Zhuo Fu China, told reporters that the State Department concluded in August for the market is a warning does not mean that the new country has fully emerged in the energy industry overcapacity situation.
"At present the reported capacity of polysilicon project only part of the actual production, while the actual production of the project, fewer have reached the production target." He said, "the conclusions of the State Council executive meeting to allow some of the potential, and has not yet launched a polysilicon project operators recognize the potential risks. so this warning for the industry is a positive effect. "
Prior to this, the investment securities statistics show that, as of the first half of this year, Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu, Yunnan, more than 20 provinces, nearly 50 companies are building, expansion and to build polysilicon production lines, with a total construction scale of more than 17 million tons, a total investment of more than 100 billion yuan. If these products can all be achieved, equivalent to the world's more than double the annual demand for polysilicon. As a result, the State Council, made specifically for polysilicon and other emerging industries "to establish and improve access to the standard measures."
People in the industry view, the so-called photovoltaic sony VGP-BPS2A battery industry is just one part of the overheated investment in over-production processes does not mean that the industry overall overheating. China Renewable Energy Society, said executive director of Ma-Lu, examining whether the surplus should not be based photovoltaic industry polycrystalline silicon PV module production capacity situation. He believes that photovoltaic industry includes a wide range of areas, such as technical research and development, applied research, technical standards development, testing areas, training areas, and the supporting components of production processes, including PV resources, evaluation and service system. All aspects of the development of photovoltaic industry is also very uneven.
"Solar PV power plant consists of two parts, the first is the component, the second part of the component outside the system." He said, "if the degree of development of the component set 100, a component of the system other than the current market maturity extent, 2, 50 times worse. "
New energy investment opportunities still exist
"Now with the new concept of energy to 'Huyou' air cast, flourishes of time has passed. A new energy industry entrepreneurs is the practical, low-key practice, an ideal time." Industrial capital investors who have the case of说.
For the industry, investors, including photovoltaic and wind power, including a new energy industry that some of the overheating and can not be organizing an industry fund to enter the grounds. Only in the industry as a whole has been at a high valuation, investors pay more attention to the leading enterprises in the technology and originality. After all, there were no investors want to own investment companies, such as polysilicon project soon fell into the same brutal competition.
DT Capital founding partner of Shao Jun that the photovoltaic industry overcapacity exists only in the low-end area; in thin-film batteries, and solar-assisted industries, such as grid technology and energy storage technologies still have a good return on the potential of , because these technologies are the next generation of technology beyond the possibility of still relatively low. The managing partner of Zhang IDGVC soyo same is true for energy storage technologies, and high-voltage transmission technology, a keen investment interest.
However, as the secondary market for institutional VGP-BPS2Cinvestors, Huaxia Fund, WANG Ya-wei said the new energy industry after industry, the wealth effect generated by the high valuation also brought about investment risk. Industry as a whole together with the high valuations of fierce competition within the industry, allowing companies to invest less and less.
Polysilicon Industry are faced with challenge
Country's economic Times reporter learned from relevant sources, China Metallurgical Group and Baotou Steel Group, Baotou City, recently signed a cooperation agreement, the two announced plans to invest 8.0 billion for the production of polysilicon, planning put into the scale of up to 5,000 tons / year, The project is scheduled to run next year, while the specific forms of cooperation the two sides are still negotiating.
The production of polycrystalline silicon solar cells, semiconductors, liquid crystal displays such as the important material. At present only a very few countries in the world has a polysilicon industry, technology. Some experts even believe that "who mastered the poly-silicon and microelectronic technology, grasps the world."
"China Metallurgical Group in the investment because of the early investment in polysilicon profit of money, at least over a billion dollars of net profit, while the Baotou Steel Group's polysilicon should be shot out of strategic considerations, polysilicon industry reshuffle would eliminate a number of small and medium companies, and powerful business will win the next round of competition. "Luoyang Sino-silicon High-Tech Vice President Yang Yuan told reporters on the China Economic Times.
According to sources within the group Baotou, Baotou Steel Group, the co-operation with China Metallurgical Group in their eyes is that China Metallurgical Group's polysilicon technology.
"This co-operation of mutual benefit if both sides can also be regarded as a wise move." Vice president of the Chinese Solar Energy Society, Photovoltaic Branch Director Zhao Yuwen, told this reporter that the polysilicon project's prospects good, but for this industry, have to master the technology, a higher threshold for the production of polysilicon, as easily lead to pollution and high energy consumption, the main bottlenecks encountered a technical bottleneck.
The market adjustment cycle beginning
In recent years, accompanied by the development of solar photovoltaic industry, polysilicon demand surge, resulting in the global polysilicon price spiral. The impact of the global financial crisis, so that a rapid decline in foreign orders, polysilicon prices have been hurt, "cut", solar photovoltaic industry, ahead of the arrival of winter, which also contributed to polysilicon industry to re-shuffle.
Polysilicon with the previous two years construction of heat compared to September this year, since the polysilicon industry, came a 180-degree turn. 9 to 10 month period this year, due to polysilicon production capacity and output is expected to gradually expand and the impact of falling prices, polysilicon spot prices from the first half of 400 U.S. dollars to 500 U.S. dollars / kg down to 250 U.S. dollars to 300 U.S. dollars / kg. At present, polysilicon prices dropped more than 250 U.S. dollars / kg.
"Polysilicon prices are too high a serious breach of the law of value, the price decline sooner or later, but the financial crisis has accelerated the pace." Semiconductor Materials Research Institute of Zhejiang University, Deren, told this reporter that the occurrence and spread of financial crisis , so that solar energy end-application market, it delays in the procurement plan, the market showed weakness. In Germany, Spain, for example, markets in these two countries accounted for more than 60% in Europe, but their planned purchases in 2009 than this year declined by about 40% -50% or so.
China National Building Material Group Corporation is responsible for a reporter to the analysis, China to get rid of energy dependence on oil will require the development and utilization of new energy to make a fuss. Mature at this stage, the use of new energy technologies, solar energy is no doubt on China's energy demand market has been very tempting, this is a direct result of China's solar market in recent years, the rapid development of the market development of solar photovoltaic cells led to the rapid development, the basis of raw material polysilicon photovoltaic cells also will heat up.
"If a single drop from its current price of polysilicon such a large point of view, has now entered this field is not a good time." NDRC Energy Research Institute, Fellow, Center for Renewable Energy Development In an interview with this reporter, when Korea an interview, said that experts had predicted the 2011, 2012, there will be polysilicon prices decline, but the financial crisis may result in polysilicon prices in 2009, appeared in 2010, dropped sharply. Previously, a lot of skills to master low energy consumption and high pollution are also high in enterprises to enter the industry in 2012 will be able to recover the cost, but if you are into, then it can not be so estimated. But for much better grasp of technology in the international market, competitive enterprises, there are still a very high return on investment guaranteed.
Yang Deren that the polysilicon business days of the year after next will not be better, polysilicon prices back to 2000 yuan -3.0 thousand yuan / kg, the possibility of not too great.
Global Li-ion battery separator decome more efficient
As international oil prices high,adapter for laptop more and more car drivers to take into account in determining the fuel economy, which directly led to a worldwide market share of hybrid vehicles rose. Expected that by 2012, U.S. sales of hybrid cars will be increased to 100 million. In order to meet the demanding needs of hybrid cars, battery key components - membranes must be improved, improve energy efficiency, thus providing more power for this vehicle, the courage to deal with the challenges of the world's energy shortages.
The key role of the diaphragm is small
Due to the high energy density lithium batteries, long cycle life, light weight, small size and other characteristics, but also has a safe, reliable and can quickly charge and discharge, etc., to become the new power technology in recent years, the research hotspot in the field of high-energy and high-power reserved popular. In the lithium battery structure, the inner membrane is a key component of the. Diaphragm made of plastic film is able to isolate the battery positive and negative, in order to prevent short circuit; also be in the battery overheating, through closed-cell function to block cell in the current conduction.
ExxonMobil Chemical's chief polymer scientist, Dell Y9943 batterysaid Bai Peide, lithium battery separator battery costs account for the cost of a / 3. Membrane determines the performance of the battery interface structure, resistance and so on, a direct impact on the battery capacity, cycle performance, and security features such as, high-performance membrane in improving overall performance of the battery has an important role. At present 60% to 70% of the membrane market, mainly in wet bi-oriented process, because the wet, bi-lateral vertical stretch more evenly balanced. It is mainly used for high-end diaphragm wet, dry method has been applied in the low-end products.
A huge global market volume
Global Li-ion battery production in the past 15 to 17 years has maintained an average of 10% to 20% growth rate from 2001 onwards, the average annual growth rate was as high as 40%. Rapidly growing lithium battery market, in addition to watches, and other one-time button-type batteries, as well as secondary rechargeable lithium-ion batteries. In addition to the current lithium ion batteries are widely used in daily well-known mobile phones, notebook computers and MP3 and other digital electronic products, in electric cars, electric bicycles and some other high-power batteries have also been started.
At present, countries are scrambling to develop electric cars, hybrid cars will need batteries to provide power, as a pure electric vehicles matching power supply, lithium-ion power supply for its outstanding performance, is becoming the core of the power type. As the hybrid line with today's national energy development needs of a large environmental protection, consumption growth must be greater than 20%. Reason to believe that lithium batteries will eventually occupy the dominant position of secondary battery market, as its key components, the lithium battery separator huge market capacity.
Personality development to improve energy efficiency
Battery separator is mainly the development of lithium-ion batteries with the evolving needs and continue to develop, from the volume point of view, lithium-ion batteries are moving in the small and large two distinct direction. In some, such as mobile phones, digital cameras and other electronic products, in order to meet the beautiful, easy to carry the demand on the battery batteries battery factory has been very small. In pursuit of high energy density, in the small size of the electrode can accommodate more material, the battery manufacturers want to divide the thickness of the thinner the better. Smaller diaphragm is a challenge because of the need to do a thin membrane, but to be able to maintain the original battery capacity, cycle performance, and security features, and greater power, the design easier.
By contrast, in electric bicycles, electric vehicles and electric tools used by power batteries, in order to obtain high-capacity, high-power, usually a battery need to use dozens or even hundreds of batteries to concatenation. Because lithium batteries have the potential explosion hazard, the safety diaphragm is important. Due to become bigger and bigger, technically demanding more efficient and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, power stronger.
Bai Peide convinced, lithium battery separator according to the different needs of different customers to develop targeted products, which divide the future trends. Although the divide is mainly single-market products, but Exxon Mobil has been able to put different materials on different membrane layers, each layer with different formulations Dell FK890 batteryof solvents and raw materials to multi-layer co-extruded to produce hot-melt thickness and diameter of hair, similar to divide and thus produce different properties of products, Bai Peide predict the future trend of multi-layer membrane is also obvious.
Still need to speed up the development of China
According to the Irish market research firm recently issued a lithium battery market forecasts show that China's current production of lithium batteries as the world's largest. In the global lithium battery production, the Chinese mainland accounted for 16.9%, China Taiwan region accounted for 6.9%. According to China's Power Industry Association of Chemistry and Physics, Statistics, 2007 China Li-ion rechargeable battery production reached 1 billion.
Affected by China's lithium-ion battery separator market-oriented development has also begun to take shape, now showing a very good momentum of development. In accordance with the battery output of 1 billion is estimated that consumption of each diaphragm 300 million ~ 500 million square meters between the market value of 10 billion to 1.5 billion.
However, China's research and development of lithium-ion battery separator got a late start, lithium-ion battery separator still mainly rely on imports, leading to the market price remains high. At present, only Japan, the United States and a few countries have a lithium battery separator production technology and the corresponding large-scale industry. China's domestic market, over 80% of diaphragm were the United States, Japan and the occupation of imported products, domestic divide is mainly in the middle and low-end markets.
The future, China needs to strengthen the industry, academia, research inputs, to develop research achievements with independent intellectual property rights, breaking the Japanes Dell RN873 batterye and American enterprises in the membrane industry, technological monopoly; the other hand, enterprises and research institutes should strengthen cooperation, speed up the results The industrialization process of transformation.